When the NBA officially announced a special 3-point shooting contest between Steph Curry and the WNBA’s Sabrina Ionescu during All-Star weekend, sportsbooks were quick to name their favorite. Based on the odds they have offered, companies including DraftKings and FanDuel give Curry a greater than 70% chance of coming out ahead. In fact, an early FanDuel line was slanted even further in Steph’s favor. At -550, his backers would have had to put down $110 for the chance to win $20.
To date, bettors have been much more interested in the other side of the equation. According to DraftKings, 98% of the money bet so far has been on Ionescu (at +200, that roughly translates to a one-in-three probability).
With less at stake in the exhibition event, sportsbooks generally implement limits on how much money individuals can put down. “A majority of bettors kind of like to bet underdogs,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said. “It’s the American way.”
Even for a competition as unprecedented as this one, Avello said bookmakers start with data to formulate lines, though “there’s a little bit of gut that goes into this,” he added. “This kind of looks like a good price, although it’s one-sided.”
Both Curry and Ionescu have strong resumes in similar events. Curry is the most recent two-time winner of the NBA’s three-point contest, claiming a second crown in 2021; Ionescu, on the other hand, is the reigning WNBA three-point winner, hitting 20 consecutive shots in—according to her—her first time shooting using racks of balls during last year’s WNBA All-Star festivities. “Shoot out??” she tweeted at Curry later that night.
“It was like when you’re in a gym,” Curry said on a media call Tuesday, “You can’t back down from that challenge. I absolutely loved it.”
This time around, Ionescu agreed to shoot from the NBA line, one foot and seven inches further back. “I practice from that range,” she explained. “It was a no-brainer.”
Head-to-head data is harder to come by, though Ionescu hinted at a recent H-O-R-S-E competition held in the Bay Area that may or may not have gone her way.
“That’s why I called her the champ,” Curry chimed in, after previously saying, “She’s the champ, so I’m the contender.”
Ultimately, it won’t be line-setters or financial backers on either of their minds come Saturday night, but the younger viewers watching two of the sport’s best, regardless of gender, going head-to-head.
“Obviously it’s a friendly match, but there’s an opportunity to raise awareness and there’s obviously many, many people in our society that still don’t give the respect to women’s sports and to women in general that is deserved,” Ionescu said. “Knowing that, this is just an opportunity, and sometimes that’s all you need to be able to go out there and shut a lot of people up, but also continue to thank those people that are continuing to push for what’s right.”
